Stock Daily — March 26, 2026
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All three indexes got pinned down by Iran and oil together. S&P 6477.16, -1.74%; Nasdaq 21408.08, -2.38%, now down over 10% from highs — officially in correction territory. Dow 45960.11, -1.01%. VIX jumped from 25.33 to 27.44. The 10-year yield touched 4.42% intraday, up about 9bp.
Iran rejected the U.S. 15-point ceasefire plan and countered with a 5-point proposal — one clause demands recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz plus war reparations. Israel launched overnight airstrikes on Tehran, taking out IRGC Navy commander Tangsiri and multiple senior officers. Iran fired missiles in retaliation; air raid sirens went off simultaneously in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. WTI closed at $93.55, up 3.58% — less than 7% from the $100 psychological barrier.
Yields and oil surging in tandem left growth stocks with nowhere to hide. Early in the session, headlines hit that Iran had officially responded to the ceasefire agreement. Quant strategies picked up the keywords and instantly bid indexes higher — Dow briefly turned positive. But no real buyers followed through, and the index reversed at light speed. When Trump was asked about the stock market selloff, he said “I thought it would drop more.” That killed whatever was left of bull sentiment. After hours, he announced a 10-day delay on strikes against Iranian power plants to April 6. Oil dipped then snapped right back. The market doesn’t buy this stalling tactic — 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne and Marines are already deployed, and the Pentagon is reportedly drawing up plans for large-scale operations. The 10 days look more like a window for force assembly.
Tech took a separate hit. Google released TurboQuant AI, claiming to cut large-model memory requirements by over 6x. Memory chip stocks collapsed — Micron has now fallen 22% from its March 18 high over six consecutive sessions. XLK closed down 3.11%, worst of all sectors. Meta fell over 6% dragged by child safety lawsuits, Nvidia dropped 3.7%, Alphabet fell 3.5%. Energy XLE was the only green sector at +1.57%, driven purely by oil.
Iran’s Hormuz sovereignty demand deserves a closer look. The Strait is an international waterway — the U.S. simply cannot concede on sovereignty, which directly kills any chance of a quick deal. Meanwhile, per GammaRoad Capital analysis, the Revolutionary Guards have fragmented into 31 autonomous units. Even if top leadership wanted to negotiate, the execution-level fragmentation makes any agreement extremely difficult to implement. Trump boasted that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers through, but the very fact that they can permit passage proves the valve is in Iran’s hands — the shipping risk hasn’t been removed.
The OECD this week revised its 2026 U.S. inflation forecast from 2.8% to 4.2%. Per AAA data, average gasoline prices have risen about $1 per gallon since the conflict started — costs that will inevitably show up in upcoming CPI prints. Initial claims came in at 210K (prior 205K, in line with expectations), continuing claims dropped to 1.82M, the lowest since May last year. The labor market is holding, but that also means the Fed has no employment-side justification to come to the rescue.
S&P has now fallen for five consecutive weeks. Conditions that would change my view: WTI back below $85 and the 10-year yield near 4.2% — that requires a ceasefire framework with actual substance. April 6 is the next hard deadline. Until then, rallies are better used as windows to trim positions.