Stock Daily — March 19, 2026
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Yesterday Powell slammed the market in the face. Today, surprisingly, it didn’t keep falling much.
S&P closed at 6606.49, -0.27%; Nasdaq 22090.69, -0.28%; Dow 46021.43, -0.44%. Minor declines across the board. VIX actually pulled back from 25.1 to 24.06, down 4.11%. Yesterday was peak panic; today was digestion.
Digestion doesn’t mean the problem is solved. The 10-year yield continued higher by about 2bp to 4.28%, dollar index at 100.09. Yesterday’s FOMC signal is still reverberating: the dot plot shows just 1 cut for the full year, Powell said tariffs account for half to three-quarters of core inflation, and explicitly noted that the oil price shock “may not be transitory.” Translation: don’t count on the Fed riding to the rescue.
The Middle East situation is escalating. Iran struck Qatar’s LNG production facilities, reportedly wiping out about 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne crude, remains obstructed. Brent touched 112.87 intraday. However, after the close news broke that Israel pledged to assist the U.S. in reopening the strait and expanding supply — oil closed flat, WTI settling at 96.14. The Russell 2000 rallied into the close, up 0.65% — small caps are the most sensitive to these geopolitical de-escalation signals.
Energy XLE gained 1.59%, the only sector with anything to show for itself. Tech XLK eked out +0.34%, carried by Micron. MU posted Q2 revenue of $23.86B, a massive beat, with AI memory demand nearly doubling year-over-year. Q3 guidance came in at $33.5B with 81% gross margin expectations. Numbers like these would normally be enough to pull tech higher, but macro headwinds capped the upside — the sector barely registered a positive print. The losers were Materials XLB at -1.53%, Consumer Discretionary XLY at -0.79%, and Consumer Staples XLP at -0.81%, same pattern as yesterday: raw material price increases squeezing margins while the consumer side absorbs inflation pass-through pressure.
Initial jobless claims dropped to 205K (prior 213K, expected 215K) — the labor market is still solid. This gives the market some floor, but also gives the Fed less reason to cut. The stronger employment looks, the longer high rates stay.
Nana’s channel called yesterday a “nosedive face-plant,” then flipped today’s headline to “popping Viagra” — from extreme bearish to bullish in 24 hours. Rhino Finance says “hanging by a thread,” SUNNY FINANCE says “ten months of bear market and one month of crash about to reach a decision point.” Market sentiment is this fractured — direction hasn’t been picked yet.
Next week watch CPI. If inflation data continues hot, rate cut expectations for this year could go to zero. Oil is the key variable: if the Strait of Hormuz actually reopens, WTI drops below 90, and the inflation narrative gets massive relief. If Iran keeps hitting energy infrastructure, $100 won’t hold. It comes down to which of these two scenarios plays out first.